Prime Highlights
- Mayo Clinic researchers created a risk prediction tool that estimates an individual’s likelihood of developing Alzheimer’s-related memory and thinking problems years in advance.
- The tool combines age, sex, genetics, and brain amyloid levels to guide early interventions and lifestyle changes.
Key Facts
- The study analyzed data from 5,858 participants in the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging, one of the world’s largest and most comprehensive brain health studies.
- Women and people with the APOE ε4 gene variant were found to have a higher lifetime risk of dementia or mild cognitive impairment (MCI).
Background
Researchers at the Mayo Clinic have developed a new risk prediction tool that can estimate a person’s likelihood of developing memory and thinking problems linked to Alzheimer’s disease years before symptoms begin. The findings were published in The Lancet Neurology and are based on decades of data from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging, one of the world’s most comprehensive studies on brain health.
The study revealed that women have a higher lifetime risk than men of developing dementia or mild cognitive impairment (MCI), a condition between normal aging and dementia that affects quality of life but still allows independence. People with the APOE ε4 gene variant also face higher risk.
The new model combines several factors, age, sex, genetic makeup, and brain amyloid levels detected through PET scans, to predict an individual’s chances of developing MCI or dementia over 10 years or a lifetime. Among these, brain amyloid levels proved the strongest predictor.
According to Dr. Ronald Petersen, director of the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging, the tool could help doctors decide when to start treatment or recommend lifestyle changes, much like cholesterol tests help predict heart disease.
The study analyzed data from 5,858 participants in Olmsted County, Minnesota, and continues to track outcomes using medical records for near-complete accuracy.
The tool is currently used for research, but it is a big step toward personalized Alzheimer’s prevention. Future versions might use blood-based biomarkers, making testing simpler and more available.
This project supports Mayo Clinic’s Precure initiative, which focuses on predicting and stopping diseases early.
